Supporters of Marcos-Duterte troop to the city hall grounds of Tagum City in Davao del Norte for the Mindanao leg of Uniteam’s miting de avance on May 5, 2022. (Keith Bacongco)

In 2016 elections, Vice President Leni Robredo dominated the race in Mindanao as she won in four of the six regions: Zamboanga, Northern Mindanao, Caraga and the then Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM).

However, as the political landscape has changed in recent years, presumptive President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and running mate Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio dominated the entire Mindanao region in this year’s presidential race.

As Marcos walloped Robredo in 25 out of 27 provinces and in seven independent cities in Mindanao, his running mate swept the entire region.

Accumulated data from GMA News Eleksyon 2022 website shows that as of May 14, the incumbent mayor of Davao City earned 9,961,890 compared to 9,201,925 votes of Marcos in Mindanao.

The tandem earned over 31 million votes each across the country, about 30 percent is from Mindanao.

Marcos only lost in the provinces of Lanao del Sur and Sarangani.

In Lanao del Sur, presidential aspirant Faisal Mangudato topped the charts with 143, 043 votes while Marcos got 107,544 votes followed by Robredo’s 103,963 votes.

While Duterte-Carpio got 264, 497 votes, which is still bigger than the votes of Mangudato and Marcos combined.

This is the only province in Mindanao that the vote difference of these three presidential bets was smaller compared to the rest of the provinces.

Like in 2016, Marcos regained the top spot in the Soccsksargen Region, which is composed of the provinces of South Cotabato, Province of Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, Sarangani and General Santos City.

This could be attributed to the endorsement of leading provincial candidates particularly in Province of Cotabato, South Cotabato and Sultan Kudarat.

The presumptive president got 1,266, 799 votes in the region followed by Senator Manny Pacquiao with 398, 122 votes.

But Pacquiao topped the presidential race in his home province of Sarangani leaving Marcos behind with 82, 246-vote difference.

In the home region of running mate Sara Duterte, the tandem walloped their rivals after each of them earned over two million votes from the provinces of Davao del Sur, Davao del Norte, Davao de Oro and Davao Occidental.

Pacquiao followed Marcos with 202, 581 votes while Robredo earned 134, 658 votes.

Meanwhile, in Davao del Norte, which is said to be the bailwick of former house speaker Pantaleon Alvarez that dumped presidential bet Ping Lacson and switched to Robredo, the presumptive president thumped the incumbent vice president with 470, 567 votes.

Robredo got 39,373 votes.

Vice presidential frontrunner and Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte is mobbed by the media after casting her vote at Daniel R. Aguinaldo National High School on Monday, May 9, 2022. (Keith Bacongco)

RoSa tandem

For some analysts, the popularity of President Rodrigo Duterte may have also propelled his daughter’s landslide win in Mindanao.

The 759,965-vote difference of Duterte-Carpio over her running mate could also attributed to the endorsement of several groups in Mindanao as their common preference for vice president.

Across Mindanao, some groups pushed for Robredo-Sara or popularly known as RoSa. While some groups also endorsed Isko Moreno-Sara and Pacuqiao-Sara tandem.

For instance, rival political clans in Maguindanao have backed Marcos and Robredo respectively but both have solidly endorsed Duterte as their vice presidential bet.

Reelectionist Bai Mariam Mangudadatu and her slate endorsed the Marcos-Duterte tandem while Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)-led United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) bet Esmael “Toto” Mangudadatu endorsed Leni Robredo-Sara Duterte team up.

This may have benefited Sara as she earned 516, 191 votes in Maguindanao while her running mate 300, 518 or a difference of 260, 673 votes.

Esmael, a first-degree cousin of Bai Mariam’s husband, had earlier endorsed Isko Moreno and Sara Duterte tandem before switching to Robredo-Duterte about two weeks before the elections`.

Like the MILF leadership, the Moro National Liberation Front factions under of founding chair Nur Misuari and Muslimin Sema also endorsed Robredo-Duterte tandem.

Despite the endorsement of these two Moro fronts, Robredo failed to sustain her winning run the region, especially in Maguindanao, which is a known traditional bailwick of the MILF.

In Cotabato City, the seat of the Bangsamoro government, Duterte-Carpio earned 46, 555 votes while her closest rival Kiko Pangilinan only got 2, 705 votes.

Marcos only earned half of her running mate’s total votes.

The MILF’s endorsement may have helped Robredo move an inch closer to Marcos with a difference of just 337 votes. Perhaps this is the closest gap between these two rivals.

Just like in Maguindanao, Sara also earned a wide difference of 156,953 votes Lanao del Sur with over her running mate.
Except for Lanao del Sur, where Mangudato dominated, Marcos won in the entire region with a total of 1,005,768 votes against Robredo’s 432, 237 votes.

BARRM is composed of the provinces of Basilan, Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Sulu and Tawi-tawi.

Like the UBJP, the Centrist Democratic Party (CDP) of Cagayan de Oro City 2nd District Representative Rufus Rodrigo, had also endorsed Robredo-Duterte tandem .

However, Robredo fared badly in Cagayan de Oro City with just 33, 780 votes compared to Marcos’ 233, 325 votes.

While in Agusan del Sur, where Robredo won over Marcos in vice presidential race in 2016, the presumptive vice president was ahead by 141,688 votes over her running mate.

But this time, Marcos gained more votes in this province compared to Robredo.

Presidential aspirant Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr speaks before the crowd during the miting de avance in Tagum City, Davao del Norte on Thursday (Keith Bacongco)

Flipped

In 2016 vice presidential race, Robredo thumped Marcos with 151, 451 votes as the former only got 48, 494 votes in Agusan del Sur.

However, this time Robred fell short of 7, 853 votes after the former senator raked 152, 029 votes in what is said to be a bailwick of the Liberal Party.

In the adjacent Agusan del Norte, the presumptive president also led Robredo by almost 240,000 votes.

In Northern Mindanao region, where Robredo dominated in 2016, she only ranked landed on third spot in Misamis Oriental with only 92, 086 votes compared to Pacquiao’s 101, 583 votes.

Marcos gapped both of them with 620, 031 votes.

In Misamis Occidental, Robredo also landed on third spot next to Pacquiao.

Pacquiao tails Marcos in Zambo region

Unlike in 2016, Robredo dominated Zamboanga Peninsula, this year’s poll showed the other way around as she was even tailing Pacquiao on third spot.

While presumptive president is leading Pacquiao after earning over a million votes in the region.

Marcos earned 273, 177 votes in Zamboanga del Norte while Pacquiao 134, 291 votes and then Robredo with 103, 253 votes.

In Zamboanga del Sur, the presumptive president got 576, 171 while Pacquiao earned 125, 058 votes. The incumbent vice president garnered 112, 821.
And then in Zamboanga Sibugay, Marcos also dominated the race with 168, 271 votes followed by Pacquiao who earned 85, 414 votes and Robredo only got 46, 147 votes. #